Friday, January 27, 2012

Why I believe that 2012-2014 will be the "golden age" of innovation?


Rising!
Before you label me as a super optimist, please allow me to state my assumptions regarding the context:

The overall economic horizon will remain very rough: The next two years are going to be very tough for medium and large companies who focus on European markets - especially France, Spain, Portugal, Italy, Ireland and United Kingdom. 2012 and 2013 will also be tough for traditionally more resilient economies like Germany and Switzerland because they focus on exports to keep growth or rely on tourism from their neighbors and around the world. And aggregate demand will remain low as consumer confidence will remain shaky in most parts of the world.

Leadership will be more rhetoric and less action: Most incumbent CEO of large companies as well as political leaders will talk a good talk but do little to spur real investment, however there will be exceptions that will break the drudgery of incompetence and insincerity. The reason is "short-termism" as CEO's have to make their quarterly numbers in an exceptionally turbulent market and political leaders have re-election on their horizon. They will be forced to go to various talk shows, conferences and meetings to make grand proclamations but their opponents (in politics) and accountants (in business) will ensure that the real investment will not be made and job losses will be announced. This will further weaken the consumer confidence and further accelerate the viscous circle.

So why do I believe that the next two years will usher in the golden age of innovation in South & North America, Europe and various parts of Africa and Asia-Pacific?

The simple answer is: People will be forced to find new sources of income to live a decent life. And that will spur innovation. My goal is to play a part in this revolution.





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